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A History of Revenue Forecasts

Author: MARK RIDER
Published in PFM, Vol. 2 No. 3

Feenberg et al. (1989) apply a simple regression-based method to
test the rationality of state revenue forecasts. Using the same regressionbased
methodology, we test the rationality of federal revenue forecasts for
fiscal year 1802 through 2001. We find that Treasury forecasts of federal
revenues satisfy the conditions of weak rationality.

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